Parameter | Current situation (2014) | Scenario 1 (2030) | Scenario 2 (2030) | Scenario 3 (2030) | Scenario 4 (2030) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of community-dwelling elderly with ≥4 chronic diseasesa | 860,741 | 1,420,369 (3.18% annual increasee) | 1,420,369 | 1,420,369 | 1,420,369 |
Total number of urinary incontinence cases in population (prevalent/ incident) | 215,185/ 55,087 | 355,092/90,904 | 355,092/90,904 | 355,092/90,904 | 355,092/90,904 |
% of the population annually admitted to a nursing home | 4% f | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2.95% |
Number of patient-years ¥ | 914,598 | 1,512,157 | 1,512,157 | 1,512,157 | 1,526,030 |
Formal home care (covered by insurance) | Â | Â | (annual: 2% reduction of users, and 1% increase of # hours) | (annual: 2% reduction of users, and 1% increase of # hours) | (annual: 1% increase of # of hours) |
 % users | 47%b | 47% | 34.7% | 34.7% | 47% |
 # hours per week | 6.4 hg | 6.4 h | 7.4 h | 7.4 h | 7.4 h |
Reduction in home care in improved/ success cases | 10%/ 25% of number of hours (=0.64/ 1.6Â h)c | 0.64/ 1.6Â h | 0.64/ 1.6Â h | 0.64/ 1.6Â h | 0.64/ 1.6Â h |
Informal care (time of partner/ family/ friends) | Â | Â | (annual: 2% increase of users and 1% increase of # hours) | Â | (annual: 2% increase of users and 1% increase of # hours) |
 % users | 43%d | 43% | 57.9% | 43% | 57.9% |
 # hours per week | 12 h d | 12 h | 13.9 h | 12 h | 13.9 h |
Reduction in informal care in improved/ success cases | 10%/ 25% of number of hours (=1.2/ 3Â h)c | 1.2/ 3Â h | 1.2/ 3Â h | 0.8/ 2Â h | 0.8/ 2Â h |
Private home care (paid out-of-pocket by elderly) | |||||
 % users | n/a | n/a | n/a | 15.6% | 15.6% |
 # hours per week | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4.2 h | 4.2 h |
Reduction in private care in improved/ success cases | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.4/ 1Â h | 0.4/ 1Â h |