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Table 3 Predictive factors of COPD exacerbation during the 3-year follow-up period

From: Risk of exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a primary care retrospective cohort study

 

Exacerbation (treatment in next 3y)

OR

95 % CI

p

Num. Of visits 2009 (Standard < 25v)

  

0.001

 25–50

1.64

(1.17 – 2.29)

0.004

 > 50

2.95

(1.25 – 6.94)

0.013

Gender (female)

1.46

(1.04 – 2.04)

0.028

Exacerbation

7.44

(3.77 – 14.70)

0.001

INT: Female * Age (mean 68y)

0.96

(0.93 – 0.99)

0.003

Age (mean 68y)

1.01

(1,00 – 1.03)

0.087

Gold severity grade (severe or very severe)

1.57

(1.01 – 2.45)

0.046

2009 influenza vaccine

2.00

(1.12 – 3.58)

0.019

23-valent Pneumococcal vaccine

1.82

(1.00 – 3.29)

0.049

INT: 2009 influenza vaccine * Pneumococcal

0.46

(0.20 - 1.02)

0.055

Derivation

 Hosmer & Lemeshow

1.10

 

0.997

 AUC ROC

0.71

(0.68 – 0.74)

< 0.001

Validation

 Hosmer & Lemeshow

41.00

 

<0.001

 AUC ROC

0.69

(0.64 – 0.74)

<0.001

  1. INT Interaction
  2. OR odds ratio
  3. OR was adjusted for: Num. of visits, gender, exacerbation, GOLD severity grade, influenza vaccine, 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine