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Table 1 Delphi procedure results

From: Prediction of persistent shoulder pain in general practice: Comparing clinical consensus from a Delphi procedure with a statistical scoring system

  Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Predictors mean (SD) rank n = 46 sum score rank n = 65 inclusion agreement rank
Symptom duration 4.26 (0.78) 1 253 1 100% 1
Pain catastrophizing 4.03 (0.95) 3 160 2 84% 2
Symptom history 4.06 (0.80) 2 95 3 90% 3
Fear-avoidance beliefs 3.91 (1.04) 6 86 4 90% 4
Coexisting neck pain 3.49 (1.12) 22 79 5 100% 5
Baseline severity of shoulder disability 3.49 (1.07) 21 78 6 97% 6
Coexisting psychological complaints/general mental health problems 3.83 (0.95) 9 73 7 84% -b
Currently on sick leave because of shoulder pain 3.69 (0.87) 11 70 8 81% -c
Multisite pain n = 10a - 68 9 84% 7
Somatisation 4.00 (0.97) 4 67 10 84% -d
Age 3.58 (0.73) 17 64 11 19% 8
Shoulder pain intensity 3.49 (1.24) 23 64 12 13% 9
Illness perceptions 3.91 (1.01) 5 62 13 13% 10
Depression/depressive symptoms 3.91 (1.07) 7 61 14 10% -
Passive coping strategies 3.63 (1.06) 15 60 15 6% -
Repetitive movements 3.86 (0.81) 8 46 16 3% -
High physical load at work or leisure time n = 11a - 39 17 6% -
Strain or overuse due to usual activities in work or leisure time 3.43 (1.06) 25 32 18 10% -
Patient reports stiffness of the shoulder 3.06 (0.97) 30 32 19 6% -
Diabetes Mellitus n = 2a - 32 20 10% -
  1. Predictors (only the 20 most highly ranked from round 2) are ordered by their prognostic importance as assessed in the second Delphi round
  2. mean = mean score for rating individual potential predictor importance, [1 (not at all predictive) - 5 (highly predictive)]
  3. SD = standard deviation
  4. rank = the order of appearance of potential predictors in individual Delphi rounds based on scores for prognostic importance
  5. sum score = the sum of all scores for predictive importance for each potential predictor
  6. inclusion agreement = consensus on the inclusion of potential predictors in the selection of the ten most important predictors for persistent shoulder pain intensity
  7. a additional potential predictor added by n panel members
  8. b potential predictor omitted from final selection since it overlaps with 'fear-avoidance' and the item is 'too general'
  9. c potential predictor combined with predictor 'severity of shoulder disability'
  10. d potential predictor omitted from final selection since it overlaps with 'multisite pain' and 'fear avoidance'