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Table 4 Adjusted hazard ratios for risk of moderate-severe CKD using the QResearch derivation cohort

From: Predicting the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease in Men and Women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and external validation of the QKidney®Scores

 

Adjusted hazard ratio

(95%CI)

women

Adjusted hazard ratio

(95%CI)

men

Ethnic group

  

   White or ethnicity not recorded

  

   Indian§

1.03 (.896 to 1.18)

1.16 (1.01 to 1.34)

   Pakistani§

1.55 (1.32 to 1.81)

2.00 (1.70 to 2.35)

   Bangladeshi§

1.50 (1.14 to 1.95)

1.35 (1.03 to 1.78)

   Other Asian§

1.16 (0.89 to 1.52)

1.44 (1.09 to 1.90)

   Black Caribbean§

0.48 (0.41 to 0.57)

0.83 (0.69 to 0.99)

   Black African§

0.56 (0.43 to 0.74)

1.17 (0.90 to 1.54)

   Chinese§

1.13 (0.77 to 1.65)

1.36 (0.89 to 2.07)

   Other ethnic group§

1.23 (1.07 to 1.40)

1.33 (1.13 to 1.57)

Co-morbidity

  

   Type 1 diabetes ±

8.21 (6.74 to 9.99)

12.3 (10.3 to 14.6)

   Type 2 diabetes ±

4.50 (4.14 to 4.89)

6.07 (5.61 to 6.57)

   Cardiovascular disease ±

1.37 (1.32 to 1.42)

1.40 (1.34 to 1.45)

   Congestive cardiac failure ±

2.27 (2.11 to 2.45)

2.84 (2.66 to 3.03)

   Peripheral vascular disease

1.35 (1.25 to 1.46)

1.47 (1.37 to 1.57)

   Treated hypertension ±

2.49 (2.33 to 2.66)

2.78 (2.59 to 2.99)

   NSAID use ±

1.30 (1.27 to 1.34)

1.29 (1.25 to 1.33)

   Family history of kidney disease ±

2.13 (1.39 to 3.27)

3.58 (2.19 to 5.84)

   Rheumatoid arthritis ±

1.62 (1.51 to 1.75)

1.48 (1.30 to 1.67)

   Systemic lupus erythematosis ±

2.40 (1.92 to 3.00)

n/a*

   History of kidney stones ±

1.27 (1.11 to 1.46)

n/a*

Smoking status

  

   Non smoker

1.00

1.00

   Ex smoker ±

1.19 (1.15 to 1.23)

1.13 (1.09 to 1.17)

   Light smoker ±

1.30 (1.23 to 1.38)

1.15 (1.08 to 1.22)

   Moderate smoker ±

1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)

1.24 (1.16 to 1.32)

   Heavy smoker ±

1.43 (1.34 to 1.52)

1.25 (1.16 to 1.34)

Townsend score (per 5 unit increase)

1.16 (1.14 to 1.18)

1.10 (1.08 to 1.19)

  1. ± compared with patients without the condition/medication at baseline.
  2. § Compared with patients in the white/not recorded group
  3. *n/a as not included in the final model
  4. Models also included fractional polynomial terms for age, body mass index and systolic blood pressure. The fractional polynomial terms were as follows:
  5. Both sexes: age terms were (age/10)3 and (age/10)3*ln(age/10)
  6. Both sexes: bmi terms were (bmi/10)-2 and (bmi/10)-2*ln(bmi/10)
  7. Women: sbp terms were (sbp/100)-2 and (sbp/100)-2*ln(sbp/100)
  8. Men: sbp terms were (sbp/100)-2 and (sbp/100)-0.5
  9. The model also included interactions between the age terms and type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and treated hypertension