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Table 4 Adjusted hazard ratios for risk of moderate-severe CKD using the QResearch derivation cohort

From: Predicting the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease in Men and Women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and external validation of the QKidney®Scores

  Adjusted hazard ratio
(95%CI)
women
Adjusted hazard ratio
(95%CI)
men
Ethnic group   
   White or ethnicity not recorded   
   Indian§ 1.03 (.896 to 1.18) 1.16 (1.01 to 1.34)
   Pakistani§ 1.55 (1.32 to 1.81) 2.00 (1.70 to 2.35)
   Bangladeshi§ 1.50 (1.14 to 1.95) 1.35 (1.03 to 1.78)
   Other Asian§ 1.16 (0.89 to 1.52) 1.44 (1.09 to 1.90)
   Black Caribbean§ 0.48 (0.41 to 0.57) 0.83 (0.69 to 0.99)
   Black African§ 0.56 (0.43 to 0.74) 1.17 (0.90 to 1.54)
   Chinese§ 1.13 (0.77 to 1.65) 1.36 (0.89 to 2.07)
   Other ethnic group§ 1.23 (1.07 to 1.40) 1.33 (1.13 to 1.57)
Co-morbidity   
   Type 1 diabetes ± 8.21 (6.74 to 9.99) 12.3 (10.3 to 14.6)
   Type 2 diabetes ± 4.50 (4.14 to 4.89) 6.07 (5.61 to 6.57)
   Cardiovascular disease ± 1.37 (1.32 to 1.42) 1.40 (1.34 to 1.45)
   Congestive cardiac failure ± 2.27 (2.11 to 2.45) 2.84 (2.66 to 3.03)
   Peripheral vascular disease 1.35 (1.25 to 1.46) 1.47 (1.37 to 1.57)
   Treated hypertension ± 2.49 (2.33 to 2.66) 2.78 (2.59 to 2.99)
   NSAID use ± 1.30 (1.27 to 1.34) 1.29 (1.25 to 1.33)
   Family history of kidney disease ± 2.13 (1.39 to 3.27) 3.58 (2.19 to 5.84)
   Rheumatoid arthritis ± 1.62 (1.51 to 1.75) 1.48 (1.30 to 1.67)
   Systemic lupus erythematosis ± 2.40 (1.92 to 3.00) n/a*
   History of kidney stones ± 1.27 (1.11 to 1.46) n/a*
Smoking status   
   Non smoker 1.00 1.00
   Ex smoker ± 1.19 (1.15 to 1.23) 1.13 (1.09 to 1.17)
   Light smoker ± 1.30 (1.23 to 1.38) 1.15 (1.08 to 1.22)
   Moderate smoker ± 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34) 1.24 (1.16 to 1.32)
   Heavy smoker ± 1.43 (1.34 to 1.52) 1.25 (1.16 to 1.34)
Townsend score (per 5 unit increase) 1.16 (1.14 to 1.18) 1.10 (1.08 to 1.19)
  1. ± compared with patients without the condition/medication at baseline.
  2. § Compared with patients in the white/not recorded group
  3. *n/a as not included in the final model
  4. Models also included fractional polynomial terms for age, body mass index and systolic blood pressure. The fractional polynomial terms were as follows:
  5. Both sexes: age terms were (age/10)3 and (age/10)3*ln(age/10)
  6. Both sexes: bmi terms were (bmi/10)-2 and (bmi/10)-2*ln(bmi/10)
  7. Women: sbp terms were (sbp/100)-2 and (sbp/100)-2*ln(sbp/100)
  8. Men: sbp terms were (sbp/100)-2 and (sbp/100)-0.5
  9. The model also included interactions between the age terms and type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and treated hypertension