Skip to main content

Table 4 Performance measures for the expert-based and statistically derived prognostic models

From: Prediction of persistent shoulder pain in general practice: Comparing clinical consensus from a Delphi procedure with a statistical scoring system

 

Expert model dicho

Expert model cont

Statistical model

calibration slope

1.017

0.986

1.019

R2 N

0.098

0.13

0.162

AUC

0.656

0.679

0.702

95% CI

0.612 - 0.700

0.636 - 0.722

0.660 - 0.745

Optimism

0.029

0.028

0.014

AUCcorrected

0.627

0.651

0.688

  1. Expert model dicho = prognostic model using dichotomized expert selected predictors
  2. Expert model cont = prognostic model using continuous expert selected predictors
  3. R2 N = Nagelkerke's explained variance
  4. AUC = Discriminative ability as indicated by the Area Under the ROC Curve
  5. 95% CI = 95% confidence interval for the AUC
  6. Optimism = the models' estimated deterioration when applied to new subjects
  7. AUCcorrected = the optimism corrected Area Under the ROC Curve
Back to article page

BMC Primary Care

ISSN: 2731-4553

Contact us